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Rubio has zero doubt. Maliki names the day. Turkey hands back Bashiqa. Syria wants the militias off its border. Everything lands on September 30.

Thursday, September 24. The holdout militias spent all summer betting on one question. Would Washington blink? The answer came on camera in New York. Asked whether he was confident in Baghdad's Prime Minister, Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not hedge: "We have zero doubt of his commitment to doing this." Kurdish press carried the other half within hours. Ali al-Zaidi has not asked Washington to extend the deadline for bringing the country's weapons under state control.

Even Nouri al-Maliki now names the day. This month he was still arguing for regulation over surrender, with no timeframe attached. On Wednesday the former prime minister said it himself: "There is a timeframe and a program that will be announced on Sept. 30 regarding restricting weapons to the state."

The rest of Iraq's map moved in the same 48 hours. Turkey agreed to hand back the base it planted near Mosul in 2015. Syria's president met al-Zaidi for the first time and asked for militia-linked units to be kept away from the border. The coalition's air defenses are leaving Erbil on schedule. Foreign bases. Foreign fighters. The factions' weapons. Every one of those files moved this week, around a deadline Washington now says will not move: September 30.

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