June 12, 2026. Trump declares the war with Iran settled and cancels the strikes. The signing is set for Europe, maybe this weekend. Oil drops below $87. The blockade lifts on one signature, and the country with the most riding on it is Iraq.

The terms as Trump described them: the naval blockade lifts once the deal is signed, Iran commits to never holding a nuclear weapon, and a 60-day window opens with Hormuz traffic running unrestricted. Tehran gets 30 days to pull its own mines out of the water. Iran's Fars agency says no text is approved yet. Hours after the announcement, Iranian drones went after commercial shipping and US forces shot them down.

The bigger story is the revenue valve. Before the war, 93 million barrels of Iraqi crude moved through Hormuz every month. April's count was 10 million. Oil money near $7 billion a month fell below $1 billion. The recovery is already visible on the water, and Prime Minister al-Zaidi's 500,000 barrel per day offer to Washington becomes deliverable the moment the strait clears.

Baghdad's side of the window is converging: ground sources say the blocs have settled which parties get the 9 vacant ministries, a Kurdistan delegation arrives next week carrying the oil and customs files, and Kataib Imam Ali just handed the state the first complete arms inventory any Iran-backed faction has surrendered.

Then look at the calendar. The signing window opens this weekend. Sunday is Trump's 80th birthday and UFC Freedom 250 on the White House South Lawn. Monday the G7 opens in Evian, a summit France moved back a day to clear the birthday. Wednesday the Federal Reserve reads an inflation picture rewritten by an $87 barrel.

The banks, the ledger, the guns, the budget, the rate. All of it is one signature away.