The Banking Freeze

Silhouette raising a ceremonial sword, golden orb glowing beside him, four national flags at a diplomatic table, construction cranes through palace archways at dawn

The Fourth Level

Iran rejected the 15-point plan on live television. Nobody who matters was watching. Four foreign ministers had already gathered before dawn in Riyadh to plan what comes next.

American and Iraqi flag-painted hands shaking underneath a table while officials argue above, with $40.8B visible on the handshake

The $40.8 Billion Tell

US Treasury data shows Iraq nearly doubled its bond holdings to $40.8 billion in 2025. Today: why that number changes everything, surrender terms on Tehran's desk, and a Supreme Leader who speaks through a photograph.

A massive American bald eagle wrapped in stars and stripes descending through black smoke onto crumbling power plant infrastructure, C-17 cargo planes in formation behind it

The Staging Window

Trump paused strikes on Iran's power grid. Hours later, bombers hit Isfahan. The grace period for bond distribution starts today. 5-7 business days.

An American flag-painted hand moves a knight on a stone chessboard in a zugzwang position, cracked opposing pieces nearly trapped, burning oil fields behind, golden sunrise ahead

Iran Blinked. Then They Told You To Panic Anyway.

Iran capitulated on Hormuz in under 24 hours. Then the IEA told you to panic. Bessent told a different story. Signal Watch, scenario projections, and what four collapsing currencies tell you about one that isn't.