250,000 Barrels Per Day. Through Turkey.
At 10:00 AM Baghdad time today, Iraqi oil started flowing through the Kurdistan pipeline to Turkey’s Ceyhan port. First time since the Iran war began.
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The Fourth Level
Iran rejected the 15-point plan on live television. Nobody who matters was watching. Four foreign ministers had already gathered before dawn in Riyadh to plan what comes next.
The $40.8 Billion Tell
US Treasury data shows Iraq nearly doubled its bond holdings to $40.8 billion in 2025. Today: why that number changes everything, surrender terms on Tehran's desk, and a Supreme Leader who speaks through a photograph.
The Staging Window
Trump paused strikes on Iran's power grid. Hours later, bombers hit Isfahan. The grace period for bond distribution starts today. 5-7 business days.
Iran Blinked. Then They Told You To Panic Anyway.
Iran capitulated on Hormuz in under 24 hours. Then the IEA told you to panic. Bessent told a different story. Signal Watch, scenario projections, and what four collapsing currencies tell you about one that isn't.